This is a tough spot for San Jose State who will be fighting for their bowl hopes, but they face Boise State a top 30 defense. San Jose State is on short rest, and they are coming off a road trip from Hawaii, this is a difficult spot for any team at any time in the season never mind at the end of the season. Boise State has to be pissed off after 2 straight losess. This team is 13-2 straight up following a loss since 2008.
What I really like about Boise in this spot is they are 5-1 when they can run the ball for greater than 4 yards per carry, I believe they can do that against San Jose State, and they are 7-1 when they allow the opponent to run for 4 yards or less per carry. The game plan against a weaker San Jose State team should simply be stop the run, and if Boise doesnât turn the ball over a crazy amount like the Utah State game they should win this game easily. San Jose is 0-3 vs. top 35 defenses this year and they have really stacked up their stats against the weak teams in the conference. San Jose State also not a very good team on special teams which is something Boise State prides themselves on. I donât see the edge with San Jose State other then they want to get to a bowl game, but the line value is right for Boise State it should be 14+, itâs not because of B2B losses, and the line has moved from 10 to 7.5 letâs take advantage of these factors and take Boise State.
I love the Huskers in this match up, and really wanted to take them on the regular line to pull off the upset. A few things stopped me including their ability to stop the run which is a bit misleading, but they are well rested, and have a deep rotation that should make things very challenging for Iowa. First of all every time Nebraska was in a tight game in the 4th quarter they have found a way to lose. They could very easily be sitting here undefeated as well, but they are not so itâs hard to take them to win this game, but I feel extremely comfortable and confident in them covering a full TD in this game as long at Tommy Armstrong doesnât give Iowa points by turning the ball over 3+ times we should be in good shape.
Nebraska is going to challenge this Iowa defense that hasnât been challenged. They have a balanced offense, that can beat you both ways, and they really like to open things up in the passing game top 25 explosiveness, and although the weather may hold some of that back they are just as dangerous on the ground as Iowa. Home field advantage and the 13 days off, Iowa is on 6 days off and full of distractions now that they are thrown into the college football playoff. Nebraska also wants a win to get into a bowl game, and have been competitive in every game. I think the difference will be up front for Nebraska who terrorized this Iowa offensive line last year with Vincente Valentine and Maliek Collins. If Iowa gets into predictable situations they will not win this game and Nebraska can claim they beat both teams in the Big 10 Championship game. Even with a loss Iowa is still alive for the college football playoff.
